Cov xwm txheej yuav los tom ntej 9 Lub Rau Hli 2025

Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	tseem ceeb	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	CPI (MoM) (May)	----	0.1%
01:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (May)	-0.2%	-0.1%
01:30		2 points	PPI (YoY) (May)	-3.1%	-2.7%
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (May)	5.0%	8.1%
03:00		2 points	Ntshuam (YoY) (May)	-0.9%	-0.2%
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (May)	101.10B	96.18B
09:00		2 points	ECB Tus Txwj Laug Hais Lus	----	----
15:00		2 points	NY Fed 1-Xyoo Consumer Inflation Expectations (Tsib Hlis)	----	3.6%
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	3.8%	3.8%

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Rau Hli 9, 2025

Tuam Tshoj

1. CPI (YoY & MoM) (May) – 01:30 UTC

• Huab cua (YOY): -0.2% | Yav dhau los: -0.1%
• Previous tsab xov xwmMoM: + 0.1%
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Tsis tu ncua deflation yuav ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog qaug zog domestic thov, muaj peev xwm ua kom txoj cai yooj yim los ntawm PBoC.
  • Tsis zoo inflation surprises yuav siab CNY thiab lub regional kev txaus siab xav.

2. PPI (YoY) (May) – 01:30 UTC

• Huab cua: -3.1% | Yav dhau los: -2.7%
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Deepening producer deflation qhia tus nqi-sab tsis muaj zog hauv kev lag luam, txhawb nqa deflation txaus ntshai.

3. Exports & Imports (YoY) (Tsib Hlis) – 03:00 UTC

• Forecast Exports: +5.0% | Yav dhau los: + 8.1%
• Forecast Ntshuam: -0.9% | Yav dhau los: -0.2%
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Slowing export kev loj hlob thiab poob imports teeb liab txias thoob ntiaj teb thiab domestic xav tau.
  • Tsis zoo surprise tuaj yeem siab Tus nqi khoom muag thiab AUD / NZD.

4. Trade Balance (USD) (Tsib Hlis) – 03:00 UTC

• Huab cua: $101.10B | Yav dhau los: $ 96.18B
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Kev lag luam ntau dua tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qaug zog domestic noj es tsis muaj zog ua lag luam dynamics.

eurozone

5. ECB's Elderson Hais Lus - 09:00 UTC

• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Cov lus hais yuav raug ntsuas rau post-rate txiav txoj cai qhia thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog nyiaj txiag.
  • Hawkish tone tuaj yeem txhawb nqa EUR; dovish tone yuav nias nws.

United States

6. NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Tsib Hlis) – 15:00 UTC

• Yav dhau los: 3.6%
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • Kev poob qis yuav txhawb nqa Fed dovish stance; sawv tuaj yeem roj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi persistence.

7. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC

• Huab cua & yav dhau los: 3.8%
• Kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam:
  • ruaj khov kev loj hlob kwv yees yuav txo qhov siab rau Fed txiav tam sim, muaj peev xwm txhawb USD thiab Treasury yields.

Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

• Kev tsom xam yog squarely rau Tuam Tshoj tus nqi nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv. Pov thawj ntawm deflation thiab softening kev lag luam tuaj yeem nce hu rau txoj cai stimulus.
• Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom lag luam kev cia siab thiab GDPNow yuav coj views rau Fed kev taw qhia thiab kev loj hlob resilience.
• EUR volatility tej zaum yuav nce ntxiv nyob ntawm Elderson cov lus hais, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tom qab ECB qhov kev txiav txim siab tsis ntev los no.

Zuag qhia tag nrho cov qhab nias: 7/10

Ntsiab tsom xam:
Qhov kev sib tham no yuav muab kev nkag siab rau hauv Ntiaj teb deflation piav qhia los ntawm Tuam Tshoj CPI / PPI, Raws li zoo raws li thaum ntxov US inflation expectations. Ua ke, cov xwm txheej no yuav tsim kev xav nyob ib puag ncig kev thov thoob ntiaj teb, kev nqis peev hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab, thiab cov txiaj ntsig txiaj ntsig. Qhov nruab nrab volatility yuav tsum nyob rau hauv CNY, AUD, USD, thiab EUR.