Cov xwm txheej yuav tshwm sim tom ntej 7 Lub Ib Hlis 2025

Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	tseem ceeb	Event	forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Kev Pom Zoo Hauv Tsev (MoM) (Nov)	-0.9%	4.2%
03:35		2 points	10-Xyoo JGB Auction	----	1.084%
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	2.7%	2.7%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Dec)	2.4%	2.2%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Dec)	----	-0.3%
10:00		2 points	Tus nqi poob haujlwm (Nov)	6.3%	6.3%
13:30		2 points	Exports (Nov)	----	265.70B
13:30		2 points	Ntshuam (Nov)	----	339.60B
13:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Nov)	-78.40B	-73.80B
15:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec)	----	51.5
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	53.2	52.1
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Nqe (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	----	58.2
15:00		3 points	JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)	7.770M	7.744M
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.4%	2.4%
21:30		2 points	API Lub Limtiam Crude Roj Tshuag	----	-1.442M

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Ib Hlis 7, 2025

1. Australia Lub Tsev Pom Zoo (00:30 UTC):
   • Huab cua: -0.9% Yav dhau los: 4.2%.
     Taug qab cov kev hloov pauv hauv cov haujlwm tsim vaj tsev pom zoo, muab qhov taw qhia ntxov ntawm kev tsim kho. Kev poob qis yuav hnyav rau AUD.
2. Nyiv 10-Year JGB Auction (03:35 UTC):
   • Yav dhau los: 1.084%.
     Cov txiaj ntsig qhia cov neeg ua lag luam xav tau rau tsoomfwv Nyij Pooj daim ntawv cog lus, cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev cia siab rau BoJ txoj cai.
3. Eurozone Inflation Data (10:00 UTC):
   • Core CPI (YoY): Kev kwv yees: 2.7%, Yav dhau los: 2.7%.
   • CPI (YOY): Kev kwv yees: 2.4%, Yav dhau los: 2.2%.
   • CPI (MoM): Yav dhau los: -0.3%.
     Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag ua rau muaj kev cia siab rau ECB txoj cai nyiaj txiag. Cov nuj nqis siab tshaj qhov kev cia siab tuaj yeem ntxiv dag zog rau EUR.
4. Tus nqi nyiaj poob haujlwm hauv Eurozone (10: 00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 6.3%, Yav dhau los: 6.3%.
     Tracks kev ua lag luam ua lag luam; ruaj khov lossis txhim kho tus nqi tuaj yeem txhawb nqa EUR.
5. US Trade Data (13:30 UTC):
   • Tshuav Kev Lag Luam: Huab cua: -78.40B, Yav dhau los: - 73.80 Ib.
     Qhia txog qhov nyiaj tshuav ntawm US exports thiab ntshuam, cuam tshuam txog USD kev xav thiab kev lag luam ntsig txog kev lag luam.
6. US ISM Non-Manufacturing Data (15:00 UTC):
   • Haujlwm: Tom ntej: 51.5.
   • PMI: Huab cua: 53.2, Yav dhau los: 52.1.
   • nqi: Tom ntej: 58.2.
     Gauges kev pabcuam kev ua haujlwm, ib qho tseem ceeb rau US GDP. Cov ntawv nyeem saum toj 50 qhia txog kev nthuav dav.
7. US JOLTS Txoj Haujlwm Qhib (15:00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 7.770m ,ua. Yav dhau los: 7.744M.
     Ntsuas kev thov ua haujlwm; nce lub teeb liab lub zog hauv kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm, txhawb nqa USD.
8. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (18:00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 2.4%, Yav dhau los: 2.4%.
     Kev kwv yees ntawm lub sijhawm tiag tiag ntawm Q4 GDP kev loj hlob, cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev ntseeg siab hauv USD.
9. API Lub Limtiam Crude Roj Tshuag (21:30 UTC):
   • Yav dhau los: -1.442 M.
     Qhia US cov roj crude hloov pauv, cuam tshuam rau cov nqi roj thiab lub zog sector dynamics.

Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

• Australia Lub Tsev Pom Zoo:
  • Zoo Scenario: Kev poob qis me me los yog xav tsis thoob nce ntxiv txhawb AUD.
  • Negative Scenario: Kev poob loj tshaj qhov kev cia siab hnyav ntawm AUD.
• Eurozone Inflation thiab Poob Haujlwm:
  • Zoo Scenario: Kev nce nqi siab dua txhawb EUR los ntawm kev cia siab ntxiv rau ECB txoj cai nruj dua.
  • Negative Scenario: Cov ntaub ntawv tsis muaj zog ua rau EUR.
• US Trade thiab ISM Data:
  • Zoo Scenario: Muaj zog ISM thiab kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog US kev lag luam resilience, ntxiv dag zog rau USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Cov ntawv ceeb toom tsis muaj zog ua rau USD qhov kev pom zoo thiab teeb liab kev loj hlob qeeb qeeb.
• Crude Oil Stocks:
  • Zoo Scenario: Cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb drawdowns txhawb cov nqi roj thiab tau txais txiaj ntsig cov khoom lag luam txuas nrog cov txiaj ntsig.
  • Negative Scenario: Kev npaj txhij txog tsim cov nqi roj nqi qis qis.

Zuag qhia tag nrho

Volatility: Nruab nrab mus rau siab, nrog cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb yog Eurozone kev nce nqi thiab US ISM cov ntaub ntawv kev pabcuam.

Impact Score: 7/10, raws li cov ntaub ntawv cov ntsiab lus cuam tshuam kev cia siab rau ECB thiab Fed txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag, nrog rau kev xav dav dav.