Jeremy Oles
Qhia rau nws!
| Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | tseem ceeb | Event | | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | CPI (YoY) (Q2) | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | PIB (YoY) (Q2) | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | PIB (QoQ) | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 12:15 |  | 3 points | ADP Kev Hloov Ua Haujlwm Tsis Ua Haujlwm Ua Haujlwm (Lub Xya Hli) | 82K | -33K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core PCE Nqe (Q2) | ---- | 3.50% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | PIB (QoQ) | 2.4% | -0.5% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | PIB Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) | 2.3% | 3.8% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Pending Tsev Muag (MoM) (Lub Rau Hli) | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 14:30 | | 3 points | Crude Roj Inventories | ---- | -3.169M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ---- | 0.455M |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | FOMC Cov Lus Qhia | ---- | ---- |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | Kev Txiav Txim Siab Los Ntawm Tsoom Fwv Kev Txiav Txim Siab | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 18:30 | | 3 points | FOMC Xov Xwm Sib Tham | ---- | ---- |
| 23:50 |  | 2 points | Industrial Production (MoM) (Lub Rau Hli) | -0.7% | -0.1% |
Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Xya Hli 30, 2025
Asia - Australia & Nyiv
Australia – CPI Q2 (YoY/QoQ & Trimmed-Mean) – 01:30 UTC
- Huab cua YoY: 2.1% (ua ntej 2.4%)
- Huab cua QoQ: 0.8% (ua ntej 0.9%)
- Trimmed-Mean QoQ: 0.7% (tsis hloov)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Ib qho kev txo qis hauv kev nce nqi qhia tias muaj kev sib haum xeeb hauv tus nqi siab, uas tuaj yeem txo qhov siab ntawm RBA kom nce nqi thiab tsis muaj zog. AUD coj ncaj ncees. Ib qho kev ruaj khov trimmed txhais tau hais tias tsis tu ncua kev nce nqi, uas tuaj yeem ua rau npau taws rau kev cia siab.
Nyiv - Muaj Ntau Lawm (MoM, Lub Rau Hli) - 23:50 UTC
- Huab cua: -0.7% (ua ntej -0.1%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Ib qho kev sib sib zog nqus yuav qhia tau tias cov khoom lag luam qeeb qeeb thiab qhov xav tau tsis muaj zog - muaj peev xwm tsis zoo rau JPY thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv zos.
Teb chaws Europe - Eurozone Loj hlob cov ntaub ntawv
PIB Q2 – 09:00 UTC
- Quarter-on-Quarter: 0.0% (ntev + 0.6%)
- Xyoo-rau-xyoo: 1.2% (ua ntej 1.5%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Flat QoQ kev loj hlob nrog rau kev poob qis YoY tuaj yeem txhawb kev txhawj xeeb txog Eurozone stagnation, ua rau lub zog EUR thiab ua kom ceev faj kev xav rau cov chav kawm khoom vaj khoom tsev nyob sab Europe.
Tebchaws Asmeskas - Kev Ua Haujlwm, Kev Loj Hlob, Vaj Tsev & Fed Txoj Cai
ADP Kev Hloov Ua Haujlwm Tsis Ua Haujlwm (Lub Xya Hli) - 12:15 UTC
- Huab cua: +82K (ua ntej -33K)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Ib qho kev rov qab muaj zog qhia txog kev loj hlob ntawm txoj haujlwm, uas tuaj yeem txo qhov kev cia siab ntawm Fed tus nqi txiav thiab txhawb nqa lub zog. USD.
PIB (QoQ, Q2) – 12:30 UTC
- Huab cua: 2.4% (ua ntej - 0.5%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Qhia txog qhov muaj zog rov qab los ntawm Q1 kev cog lus - qhia txog kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam thiab txhawb nqa Fed ncua lossis ceev faj kev xa xov.
PIB Price Index (QoQ, Q2) – 12:30 UTC
- Huab cua: 2.3% (ua ntej 3.8%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Kev ntsuas tus nqi yooj yim rau kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi, uas tuaj yeem txhawb nqa Fed cov ntaub ntawv-raws li kev taw qhia rau tus nqi txiav.
Core PCE Nqe Index (Q2) - 12:30 UTC
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Fed qhov kev ntsuas kev nce nqi tseem ceeb tseem ceeb - qhov kev xav tsis thoob tsis tu ncua tuaj yeem ncua kev txo qis.
Pending Tsev Muag (MoM, Lub Rau Hli) – 14:00 UTC
- Huab cua: +0.3% (ntev + 1.8%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Kev loj hlob qeeb tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov ntsuas cua txias hauv vaj tse; Cov naj npawb tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev thiab cov teeb liab muag muag.
Crude Oil Inventories & Cushing Data – 14:30 UTC
- Yav dhau los: -3.169M kos (Cushing +0.455M)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Drawdown txhawb cov nqi roj; tsim - suav nrog ntawm Cushing - tuaj yeem ua tus nqi nce lossis siab zog sib npaug.
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve – Txoj Cai Txiav Txim & Kev Qhia
FOMC Nqe Lus Qhia & Kev Txiav Txim Siab - 18:00 UTC
- Kev txiav txim siab tus nqi: Cia siab tias yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm 4.50% (tsis hloov pauv)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Tsab ntawv tshaj tawm yuav nthuav qhia Fed cov lus qhia rau pem hauv ntej ntawm kev txiav tus nqi, nrog cov lus qhia me me ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm kev yooj yim. Kev ua lag luam yuav txheeb cov lus hais txog kev nce nqi thiab kev ua haujlwm.
FOMC Xov Xwm Sib Tham - 18:30 UTC
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Thawj Tswj Hwm cov lus hais thiab kev sib tham Q&A yog qhov tseem ceeb. Ib qho kev hloov ntawm lub suab-rau pem hauv ntej qaij lossis dovish lus qhia-yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv hauv USD, Nyiaj txiag, Thiab vaj huam sib luag lag luam.
Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam
- US Federal Reserve ua dominates hnub. Cov lus tshaj tawm thiab lub rooj sib tham xov xwm zoo li yuav yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev txaus ntshai thoob ntiaj teb.
- US macro data (ADP, GDP, vaj tse) muab cov ntsiab lus rau kev txiav txim siab txoj cai, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hais txog kev ua haujlwm thiab kev loj hlob sai.
- Eurozone PIB ntxiv rau kev ntsuas kev loj hlob thoob ntiaj teb, muaj peev xwm ua rau EUR tsis muaj zog.
- Australian CPI thiab Japanese industrial ntau lawm muaj cov cim qhia txog kev nce nqi hauv cheeb tsam thiab cov khoom tsim tawm uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau AUD thiab JPY.
- Cov ntaub ntawv zog muab cov xim ntxiv rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nyiaj txiag thiab kev sib hloov hauv cov khoom sib npaug.
Tag Nrho Cov Qhab Nia: 9.5 / 10
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb:
- Fed nqe lus thiab xovxwm rooj sab laj: hawkish vs dovish cues.
- Cov ntaub ntawv kev ua haujlwm hauv Asmeskas thiab kev loj hlob: kev xav tsis thoob tuaj yeem ncua kev txiav nqi.
- Cov txiaj ntsig PCE tseem ceeb: lub hauv paus rau kev nce nyiaj txiag thiab kev txiav txim siab Fed.
- Eurozone GDP: yog tias tiaj tus raws li kev kwv yees, tuaj yeem txhawb nqa dovish ECB kev cia siab.
- Australia CPI thiab Nyiv cov zis: theem nrab tab sis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau Asian txiaj txav.
