Cov xwm txheej yuav tshwm sim tom ntej 21 Kaum Ib Hlis 2024

Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	tseem ceeb	Cov kev tshwm sim	forecast	Previous
08:00		2 cov ntsiab lus	RBA Assist Gov Bullock Hais lus	---	---
13:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	Txuas ntxiv cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm	---	1,873K
13:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	Cov Ua Haujlwm Cov Neeg Ua Haujlwm Ua Ntej	220K	217K
13:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)	6.3	10.3
13:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	Philly Fed Employment (Nov)	---	-2.2
15:00		2 cov ntsiab lus	Kev Muag Khoom Hauv Tsev (MoM) (Oct)	---	-1.0%
15:00		3 cov ntsiab lus	Kev Muag Khoom Hauv Tsev (Oct)	3.94M	3.84M
15:00		2 cov ntsiab lus	US Leading Index (MoM) (Lub Kaum Hli)	-0.3%	-0.5%
15:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	ECB Tus Txwj Laug Hais Lus	---	---
15:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	ECB's Txoj Kev Hais Lus	---	---
18:00		2 cov ntsiab lus	10-Xyoo TIPS Auction	---	1.592%
21:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	Fed's Balance Sheet	---	6,967B
21:40		2 cov ntsiab lus	Fed Tus Lwm Thawj Coj rau Kev Saib Xyuas Barr Hais Lus	---	---
23:30		2 cov ntsiab lus	National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.2%	2.4%

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 21, 2024

1. RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Hais Lus (08:00 UTC):
   Cov lus hais los ntawm RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock tuaj yeem muab kev nkag siab rau Reserve Bank of Australia txoj cai saib xyuas thiab kev lag luam, uas muaj feem cuam tshuam rau AUD.
2. US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):

• Txuas ntxiv Cov Nyiaj Tsis Muaj Haujlwm: Tom ntej: 1,873K.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Huab cua: 220K, Yav dhau los: 217K.
  Kev thov nyiaj nce tuaj tuaj yeem qhia txog kev ua lag luam muag muag, uas muaj peev xwm hnyav rau USD, thaum cov lus thov qis dua qhov kev cia siab yuav qhia txog kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm, txhawb nqa USD.

1. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index & Employment (Nov) (13:30 UTC):

• Manufacturing Index: Huab cua: 6.3, Yav dhau los: 10.3.
• Kev Ua Haujlwm Index: Yav dhau los: -2.2.
  Kev poob qis hauv kev tsim khoom lag luam lossis cov nuj nqis ua haujlwm tsis zoo tuaj yeem qhia txog kev ua haujlwm qeeb hauv kev tsim khoom lag luam, uas tuaj yeem ua rau USD muag.

1. Teb Chaws Asmeskas Kev Muag Khoom Hauv Tsev (MoM & Oct) (15:00 UTC):

• MoM Hloov: Yav dhau los: -1.0%.
• Muag ntim: Huab cua: 3.94M, Yav dhau los: 3.84M.
  Kev lag luam vaj tsev muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa USD, thaum kev muag khoom poob qis yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tsis muaj zog, muaj peev xwm hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.

1. US Leading Index (MoM) (Lub Kaum Hli) (15:00 UTC):
   Kev kwv yees: -0.3%, Yav dhau los: -0.5%. Kev poob qis txuas ntxiv qhia txog kev lag luam qeeb, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog USD kev xav.
2. ECB Hais Lus (Txwj Laug & Lane) (15:30 UTC):
   Cov lus ceeb toom los ntawm ECB cov neeg ua haujlwm tuaj yeem muab kev nkag siab txog kev nce nqi thiab kev cia siab ntawm kev loj hlob, cuam tshuam rau EUR. Hawkish tawm tswv yim yuav txhawb nqa EUR, thaum dovish tones yuav ua rau nws tsis muaj zog.
3. US 10-Xyoo TIPS Auction (18:00 UTC):
   Auction ntawm 10-xyoo Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Yav dhau los: 1.592%. Cov txiaj ntsig siab dua teeb liab nce kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi lossis kev thov kom tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua, muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa USD.
4. Fed's Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   Hloov tshiab txhua lub lim tiam ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov cuab tam thiab kev lav phib xaub. Kev hloov pauv hauv daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog USD kev xav, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias lawv qhia txog kev hloov pauv hauv cov cuab yeej siv nyiaj txiag.
5. Fed Tus Lwm Thawj Coj rau Kev Saib Xyuas Barr Hais Lus (21:40 UTC):
   Cov lus ceeb toom los ntawm Tus Lwm Thawj Coj Michael Barr tuaj yeem muab kev nkag siab txog kev ruaj ntseg nyiaj txiag thiab kev tswj hwm kev txhawj xeeb, cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev xav.
6. Nyiv National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) (23:30 UTC):
   Kev kwv yees: 2.2%, Yav dhau los: 2.4%. Kev nyeem ntawv qis dua li qhov kev cia siab yuav qhia tau tias muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag, uas muaj peev xwm hnyav rau JPY, thaum cov nuj nqis muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa txiaj.

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Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

• RBA hais lus:
  Hawkish tawm tswv yim los ntawm Bullock yuav txhawb nqa AUD, thaum cov lus hais los yog kev txhawj xeeb txog kev loj hlob tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.
• US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:
  Cov ntawv thov siab dua lossis qhov tsis muaj zog Philly Fed yuav qhia txog kev ua lag luam thiab kev tsim khoom muag muag, hnyav rau USD. Cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa USD los ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev lag luam.
• US Cov Ntaub Ntawv Vaj Tsev:
  Kev muag khoom hauv tsev nce ntxiv yuav qhia lub zog hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, txhawb nqa USD. Kev poob qis yuav qhia tau tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tau qeeb, uas tuaj yeem ua rau cov txiaj ntsig zoo.
• ECB lus:
  Hawkish tones los ntawm Elderson thiab Lane yuav txhawb nqa EUR, tshwj xeeb yog tias muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb. Dovish cov lus hais tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm EUR.
• Nyiv National Core CPI:
  Kev nce nqi siab tshaj qhov kev cia siab yuav txhawb nqa JPY los ntawm kev tawm tswv yim Bank of Nyiv tuaj yeem xav txog kev hloov kho txoj cai. Tus nqi qis dua tuaj yeem ua rau JPY tsis muaj zog los ntawm kev txhawb nqa dovish kev cia siab nyiaj txiag.

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Zuag qhia tag nrho

Volatility:
Nruab nrab, nrog rau kev saib xyuas ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg tsis muaj haujlwm thov, kev tsim khoom, thiab cov ntaub ntawv vaj tsev, nrog rau ECB cov lus tawm tswv yim thiab cov nuj nqis nyiaj txiag Japanese.

Impact Score: 6/10, vim yog kev sib xyaw ntawm kev ua haujlwm, vaj tse, kev nce nqi, thiab kev nkag siab hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab uas yuav cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev xav thiab kev cia siab rau txoj cai nyiaj txiag thoob plaws kev lag luam loj.