Cov xwm txheej yuav tshwm sim tom ntej 17 Lub Ib Hlis 2025

Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	tseem ceeb	Event	forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	3.3%	3.3%
02:00		2 points	PIB (QoQ)	1.6%	0.9%
02:00		3 points	PIB (YoY) (Q4)	5.0%	4.6%
02:00		2 points	PIB China (YTD) (Q4)	----	4.8%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	5.4%	5.4%
02:00		2 points	Tuam Tshoj Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	----	5.8%
02:00		2 points	Suav Tus Nqi Tsis Muaj Haujlwm (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	5.0%	5.0%
02:00		2 points	NBS Xovxwm Sib Tham	----	----
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	2.7%	2.7%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Dec)	0.4%	-0.3%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Dec)	2.4%	2.2%
13:30		2 points	Daim ntawv tso cai tsim tsev (Dec)	1.460M	1.493M
13:30		2 points	Lub tsev pib (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	1.330M	1.289M
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	----	-1.8%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	----	-0.90%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)	0.3%	-0.1%
17:15		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	----	----
18:00		2 points	US Baker Hughes Roj Rig suav	----	480
18:00		2 points	US Baker Hughes Total Rig suav	----	584
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	279.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Kub speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	254.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	18.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	-62.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	----	-73.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	-20.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net txoj haujlwm	----	-64.1K
21:00		2 points	TIC Net Kev Ua Lag Luam Ntev Ntev (Nov)	159.9B	152.3B

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Ib Hlis 17, 2025

Tuam Tshoj

1. Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (02:00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 3.3%, Yav dhau los: 3.3%.
     Ntsuas kev nqis peev hauv kev tsim vaj tsev, vaj tsev, thiab kev lag luam.
2. PIB (QoQ) (4:02 UTC)
   • Huab cua: 1.6%, Yav dhau los: 0.9%.
     Ib qho kev dhia tseem ceeb yuav qhia tau tias kev rov qab los sai hauv Suav kev lag luam.
3. PIB (YoY) (Q4) (02:00 UTC)
   • Huab cua: 5.0%, Yav dhau los: 4.6%.
     Kev loj hlob muaj zog qhia tau tias muaj kev tiv thaiv txawm tias muaj kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb.
4. Muaj Ntau Lawm (YoY) (02: 00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 5.4%, Yav dhau los: 5.4%.
5. Suav Tus Nqi Tsis Muaj Haujlwm (02: 00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 5.0%, Yav dhau los: 5.0%.

European Union

6. Core CPI (YoY) (10:00 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 2.7%, Yav dhau los: 2.7%.
7. CPI (YoY) (10:00 UTC)
   • Huab cua: 2.4%, Yav dhau los: 2.2%.
     Kev nce ntxiv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab rau ECB kom tswj hwm txoj cai txwv nyiaj txiag.

United States

8. Daim ntawv tso cai tsim tsev (13:30 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 1.460m ,ua. Yav dhau los: 1.493M.
9. Lub Tsev Pib Pib (13:30 UTC):
   • Huab cua: 1.330m ,ua. Yav dhau los: 1.289M.
     Kev ntsuas vaj tsev yog cov cim tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam hauv kev tsim kho.
10. Muaj Ntau Lawm (MoM) (14:15 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 0.3%, Yav dhau los: -ib%.
11. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (17:15 UTC)
    Hloov kho Q4 GDP kev loj hlob kwv yees raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab kawg.

Kev Lag Luam Tshaj Tawm

12. US Baker Hughes Roj Rig suav (18:00 UTC):
    Ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm kev ua haujlwm drilling; Cov kev hloov pauv cuam tshuam rau kev kwv yees cov khoom siv roj thiab cov nqi.
13. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
    Txhua lub lis piam speculative positioning cov ntaub ntawv rau cov roj crude, kub, forex, thiab kev ncaj ncees indices.
14. TIC Net Kev Ua Lag Luam Ntev Ntev (21:00 UTC):
    • Huab cua: $159.9B, Yav dhau los: $152.3 ib.
      Taug qab kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nyab xeeb thiab tuaj yeem qhia txog cov peev txheej lossis cov nyiaj tawm.

Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

CNY:

• Muaj zog tshaj li qhov kev cia siab ntawm Suav GDP thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsim khoom lag luam tuaj yeem txhawb nqa CNY thiab kev pheej hmoo siab dua.

EUR:

• Kev nyeem ntawv siab CPI tuaj yeem txhawb nqa ECB hawkishness, txhawb nqa EUR.

USD:

• Cov ntaub ntawv tsim khoom vaj tsev thiab kev lag luam yog qhov tseem ceeb. Kev xav tsis thoob zoo tuaj yeem txhawb nqa USD, thaum cov nuj nqis tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem qhia tias lub zog ntawm lub zog.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Nruab nrab mus rau siab (Suav GDP, EU CPI, thiab US cov ntaub ntawv vaj tse).
• Impact Score: 7/10 - Qhov tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam kev lag luam thoob plaws forex, khoom muag, thiab kev sib npaug.