Jeremy Oles

Published On: 15/01/2025
Qhia rau nws!
Cov xwm txheej yuav tshwm sim tom ntej 16 Lub Ib Hlis 2025
By Published On: 15/01/2025
Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)Statetseem ceebEventforecastPrevious
00:30🇦🇺2 pointsKev Hloov Ua Haujlwm (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)14.5K35.6K
00:30🇦🇺2 pointsKev Hloov Ua Haujlwm Tag Nrho (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)----52.6K
00:30🇦🇺2 pointsTus nqi poob haujlwm (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)4.0%3.9%
10:00Kuv hlub koj2 pointsTrade Balance (Nov)11.8B6.8B
12:30Kuv hlub koj2 pointsECB tshaj tawm Cov Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Lub Rooj Sib Tham Nyiaj Txiag --------
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsTxuas ntxiv cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm1,870K1,867K
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsCore Retail Sales (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)0.5%0.2%
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsExport Price Index (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)0.2%0.0%
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsImport Price Index (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)-0.1%0.1%
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsCov Ua Haujlwm Cov Neeg Ua Haujlwm Ua Ntej210K201K
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Lub Ib Hlis)-5.2-16.4
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsPhilly Fed Kev Ua Haujlwm (Lub Ib Hlis)----6.6
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsRetail Control (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)----0.4%
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsKev Muag Khoom Muag (MoM) (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)0.6%0.7%
15:00🇺🇸2 pointsKev Lag Luam Inventories (MoM) (Nov)0.1%0.1%
15:00🇺🇸2 pointsRetail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov)0.6%0.1%
16:00🇺🇸2 pointsFOMC Tus Tswv Cuab Williams Hais Lus--------
18:00🇺🇸2 pointsAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)2.7%2.7%
21:30🇺🇸2 pointsFed's Balance Sheet----6,854B
21:30🇳🇿 ib2 pointsKev Lag Luam NZ PMI (Dec)----45.5

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Ib Hlis 16, 2025

Australia

  1. Kev Hloov Ua Haujlwm (00:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 14.5K, kev Yav dhau los: 35.6k ua.
      Kev nyeem qis dua qhov kev cia siab yuav qhia tau tias kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm txias.
  2. Kev Hloov Ua Haujlwm Tag Nrho (00:30 UTC):
    • Tsis muaj kev kwv yees. Yav dhau los: 52.6k ua.
      Cov kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua haujlwm puv sijhawm; Cov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau AUD kev xav.
  3. Tus nqi poob haujlwm (00: 30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 4.0%, Yav dhau los: 3.9%.
      Ib qho kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev muag muag hauv Australian kev lag luam ua haujlwm, hnyav rau AUD.

European Union

  1. Trade Balance (10:00 UTC):
    • Huab cua: € 11.8B, Yav dhau los: € 6.8 Ib.
      Kev nthuav dav kev lag luam tshaj tawm qhia tias muaj zog xa tawm, muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa EUR.
  2. ECB Tshaj Tawm Cov Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Lub Rooj Sib Tham Nyiaj Txiag (12: 30 UTC):
    Cov ntsiab lus ntawm ECB lub rooj sib tham rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj, muab kev nkag siab txog kev nce nqi, kev cia siab rau kev loj hlob, thiab kev coj noj coj ua.

United States

  1. Kev thov nyiaj poob haujlwm txuas ntxiv (13:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 1,870K, kev Yav dhau los: 1,867k ua.
  2. Kev thov nyiaj tsis ua hauj lwm pib (13:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 210K, kev Yav dhau los: 201k ua.
      Ob qhov kev ntsuas qhia txog US kev ua lag luam muaj zog; Qhov kev xav tau nce ntxiv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb.
  3. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (13:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 0.5%, Yav dhau los: 0.2%.
      Qhia txog cov neeg siv khoom xav tau tsis suav nrog cov khoom tsis zoo xws li tsheb.
  4. Muag Khoom Muag (MoM) (13:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 0.6%, Yav dhau los: 0.7%.
      Qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev noj qab haus huv kev lag luam; cov ntaub ntawv softer tuaj yeem qhia txog kev qeeb ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv.
  5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (13:30 UTC):
    • Huab cua: -5.2, Yav dhau los: -16.4.
      Kev txhim kho los ntawm cov qib tsis zoo heev qhia txog kev rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom.
  6. Kev Lag Luam Cov Khoom Muag (MoM) (15:00 UTC):
    • Huab cua: 0.1%, Yav dhau los: 0.1%.
  7. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (18:00 UTC)
    • Huab cua: 2.7%, Yav dhau los: 2.7%.
      Qhia txog qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev loj hlob tshiab rau Q4 GDP raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub sijhawm.
  8. FOMC Tus Tswv Cuab Williams Hais Lus (16:00 UTC):
    Kev tawm tswv yim los ntawm tus tswv cuab tseem ceeb pov npav no tuaj yeem muab cov lus qhia ntawm Fed tus nqi trajectory.

New Zealand

  1. Kev Lag Luam NZ PMI (21: 30 UTC):
    • Yav dhau los: 45.5.
      Kev nyeem ntawv qis dua 50 qhia txog kev cog lus hauv kev tsim khoom.

Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

AUD:

  • Cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog thiab nce nyiaj poob haujlwm tuaj yeem ua rau AUD.

EUR:

  • Kev ua lag luam muaj zog dua thiab hawkish ECB feeb tuaj yeem txhawb nqa EUR.

USD:

  • Kev muag khoom muag thiab cov ntaub ntawv thov tsis ua haujlwm yuav ua rau kev xav ntawm kev lag luam. Kev nyeem ntawv muaj zog tuaj yeem txhawb kev cia siab ntawm Fed nruj, txhawb nqa USD.

Volatility & Impact Score

  • Volatility: Siab (Kev Muag Khoom Muag, ECB cov lus sib tham, thiab cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm).
  • Impact Score: 8/10 - Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam thiab txoj cai hloov tshiab thoob plaws cheeb tsam loj.