Jeremy Oles

Published On: 15/12/2024
Qhia rau nws!
Cov xwm txheej kev lag luam yuav los tom ntej 16 Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2024
By Published On: 15/12/2024
Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0)Statetseem ceebEventforecastPrevious
00:30🇯🇵2 cov ntsiab lusau Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Dec)------50.5
02:00🇨🇳 ib2 cov ntsiab lusFixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov)3.5%3.4%
02:00🇨🇳 ib2 cov ntsiab lusIndustrial Production (YoY) (Nov)5.4%5.3%
02:00🇨🇳 ib2 cov ntsiab lusTuam Tshoj Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov)------5.8%
02:00🇨🇳 ib2 cov ntsiab lusSuav Puav Pheej Rate (Nov)5.0%5.0%
02:00🇨🇳 ib2 cov ntsiab lusNBS Xovxwm Sib Tham------------
08:15Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusECB Thawj Tswj Hwm Lagarde Hais lus------------
08:35Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusECB Thawj Tswj Hwm Lagarde Hais lus------------
08:45Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusECB's De Guindos Hais lus ------------
09:00Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusHCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec)45.345.2
09:00Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusHCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec)------48.3
09:00Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusHCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec)49.549.5
10:00Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusCov nyiaj ua haujlwm hauv euro cheeb tsam (YoY) (Q3)------4.50%
13:30🇺🇸2 cov ntsiab lusNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)6.4031.20
14:45🇺🇸2 cov ntsiab lusS&P Ntiaj teb no US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)49.449.7
14:45🇺🇸2 cov ntsiab lusS&P Ntiaj Teb Composite PMI (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)------54.9
14:45🇺🇸2 cov ntsiab lusS&P Kev Pabcuam Ntiaj Teb PMI (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis)55.756.1
16:30Kuv hlub koj2 cov ntsiab lusECB's Schnabel Hais lus------------

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem Kev Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej rau Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 16, 2024

  1. Nyiv Kev Pabcuam PMI (Dec) (00:30 UTC):
    • Yav dhau los: 50.5.
      Qhia txog kev ua haujlwm hauv Nyiv cov kev pabcuam. PMI siab tshaj 50 teeb liab nthuav dav. Cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa JPY, thaum nyeem ntawv tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.
  2. Tuam Tshoj Economic Data (02: 00 UTC):
    • Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov): Kev kwv yees: 3.5%, Yav dhau los: 3.4%.
    • Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Kev kwv yees: 5.4%, Yav dhau los: 5.3%.
    • Tus nqi poob haujlwm (November): Kev kwv yees: 5.0%, Yav dhau los: 5.0%.
      Qhov taw qhia ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev ua lag luam ua lag luam nyob hauv Suav teb. Cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa CNY thiab kev pheej hmoo thoob ntiaj teb kev xav, tau txais txiaj ntsig cov khoom lag luam sib txuas xws li AUD.
  3. Eurozone Economic Txheej xwm (08: 15-16: 30 UTC):
    • ECB lus: Thawj Tswj Hwm Lagarde (08:15, 08:35), De Guindos (08:45), Schnabel (16:30).
      Kev tawm tswv yim ntawm txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam yuav cuam tshuam txog EUR kev xav.
    • HCOB PMIs (Dec) (09:00 UTC)
      • Manufacturing PMI: Huab cua: 45.3, Yav dhau los: 45.2.
      • Composite PMI: Tom ntej: 48.3.
      • Kev Pabcuam PMI: Huab cua: 49.5, Yav dhau los: 49.5.
        PMIs qis dua 50 qhia txog kev cog lus. Kev ruaj khov lossis kev txhim kho yuav txhawb nqa EUR, thaum qhov kev poob qis ntxiv tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.
    • Eurozone Nyiaj Hli (YoY) (Q3) (10: 00 UTC):
      • Yav dhau los: 4.50%.
        Qhia txog kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj ua haujlwm. Cov nyiaj ua haujlwm nrawm nrawm yuav txhawb nqa EUR los ntawm kev qhia txog kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag.
  4. US Cov Ntaub Ntawv Nyiaj Txiag (13:30–14:45 UTC):
    • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis): Huab cua: 6.40, Yav dhau los: 31.20.
    • S&P Ntiaj teb no PMIs (Dec) (14:45 UTC):
      • Manufacturing PMI: Huab cua: 49.4, Yav dhau los: 49.7.
      • Composite PMI: Tom ntej: 54.9.
      • Kev Pabcuam PMI: Huab cua: 55.7, Yav dhau los: 56.1.
        PMIs tsis muaj zog yuav hnyav rau USD, thaum cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog yuav txhawb nqa USD lub zog los ntawm kev qhia txog kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam.

Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam

  • Japan Services PMI:
    Kev txhim kho PMI yuav qhia txog kev nthuav dav hauv cov kev pabcuam, txhawb nqa JPY. Kev poob qis PMI tuaj yeem qhia txog kev lag luam kev lag luam, hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.
  • Tuam Tshoj Economic Data:
    Kev lag luam muaj zog lossis kev nqis peev ruaj khov yuav qhia txog kev lag luam muaj zog, txhawb nqa CNY thiab txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam sib txuas. Cov ntaub ntawv tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo siab thoob ntiaj teb.
  • Eurozone PMIs & ECB hais lus:
    Kev ruaj khov lossis txhim kho PMIs yuav txhawb nqa EUR los ntawm kev taw qhia txog kev tiv thaiv. Hawkish ECB tawm tswv yim los ntawm Lagarde, De Guindos, lossis Schnabel yuav txhawb nqa EUR lub zog, thaum cov lus hais dovish yuav ua rau nws tsis muaj zog.
  • US PMIs & Empire State Index:
    Cov ntaub ntawv zoo yuav qhia txog kev ua haujlwm zoo hauv kev tsim khoom thiab kev pabcuam, txhawb nqa USD. PMIs tsis muaj zog yuav qhia txog kev lag luam qeeb, muaj peev xwm hnyav ntawm cov txiaj.

Zuag qhia tag nrho

Volatility:
Nruab nrab mus rau siab, nrog rau kev tsom mus rau PMIs los ntawm Nyiv, Tuam Tshoj, Eurozone, thiab Asmeskas, nrog rau ECB tawm tswv yim cuam tshuam txog EUR kev xav.

Impact Score: 7/10, tau tsav los ntawm PMI tseem ceeb nyeem ntawv, ECB cov lus hais, thiab Asmeskas kev tsim khoom thiab kev pabcuam cov ntaub ntawv hloov pauv kev lag luam rau JPY, CNY, EUR, thiab USD.