Jeremy Oles
Qhia rau nws!
| Sijhawm (GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | tseem ceeb | Event | | Previous |
| 08:00 |  | 2 points | IEA Daim Ntawv Qhia Txhua Lub Hlis | ---- | ---- |
| 11:00 | | 2 points | OPEC Daim Ntawv Qhia Txhua Lub Hlis | ---- | ---- |
| 12:15 |  | 2 points | Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| 12:15 | | 2 points | ECB Marginal Lending Facility | ---- | 2.40% |
| 12:15 | | 2 points | ECB Monetary Policy Statement | ---- | ---- |
| 12:15 | | 2 points | Kev txiav txim siab paj laum ECB (Sep) | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Txuas ntxiv cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm | ---- | 1,940K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) | ---- | 3.1% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Cov Ua Haujlwm Cov Neeg Ua Haujlwm Ua Ntej | 234K | 237K |
| 12:45 | | 2 points | ECB Xov Xwm Sib Tham | ---- | ---- |
| 14:15 | | 2 points | ECB Thawj Tswj Hwm Lagarde Hais lus | ---- | ---- |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 30-Xyoo Bond Auction | ---- | 4.813% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Federal Budget Balance (Aug) | -305.7B | -291.0B |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | Fed's Balance Sheet | ---- | 6,602B |
| 22:30 |  | 2 points | Kev Lag Luam NZ PMI (Aug) | ---- | 52.8 |
| 22:45 | | 2 points | Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | ---- | 0.2% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on Cuaj hlis 11, 2025
Kev Lag Luam Hluav Taws Xob - IEA & OPEC Cov Lus Qhia
- IEA Lub Hlis Tshaj Tawm - 08:00 UTC
- OPEC Lub Hlis Tshaj Tawm - 11:00 UTC
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Ob daim ntawv tshaj tawm yuav hloov kho qhov xav tau / muab kev pom zoo rau cov roj.
- Kev hloov pauv hloov tshiab (kev thov siab dua, qis dua) → tus nqi siab dua, muaj zog CAD / NOK, thiab lub zog sib npaug.
- Bearish hloov kho → siab ntawm roj thiab kev pheej hmoo siab.
Teb chaws Europe - ECB Txoj Cai Txiav Txim Siab
ECB Tus Nqi Txiav Txim Siab (Sep) – 12:15 UTC
- Deposit Facility Rate: 2.00% (ib yam)
- Tus nqi tseem ceeb: 2.15% (ib yam)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Tsis xav hloov. Kev lag luam tsom mus rau:
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement & Lagarde's Press Conference (12:45 & 14:15 UTC).
- Hawkish tone → EUR kev txhawb nqa, daim ntawv cog lus yields.
- Dovish tone → EUR softens, equities tej zaum yuav rally.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas - Inflation, Labor & Bonds
CPI Data (Aug) – 12:30 UTC
- Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% (ib yam)
- CPI (YOY): 2.9% (ua ntej 2.7%)
- Qhov cuam tshuam:
- Kub CPI → Fed hawkishness revived, USD nce, yields nce, equities pressured.
- Softer CPI → USD weaker, equities up, bonds rally.
Cov Ntawv Thov Tsis Muaj Haujlwm - 12:30 UTC
- Pib: 234K (ua ntej 237K)
- Txuas ntxiv: ~ 1.94M (yav dhau los 1.94M)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Cov lus thov ruaj khov = kev ua lag luam ua lag luam resilience → txo Fed chav kom yooj yim. Spike siab dua yuav txhawb nqa dovish kev cia siab.
30-Xyoo Bond Auction - 17:00 UTC
- Yav dhau los Yield: 4.813%
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj mus sij hawm ntev. Tsis muaj zog thov → siab dua yields, siab ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev. Muaj zog xav tau → nyem rally nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus thiab equities.
Federal Budget Balance (Aug) – 18:00 UTC
- Huab cua: -305.7B (prev -291B)
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Kev tsis txaus siab loj → kev txhawj xeeb txog nuj nqis mus sij hawm ntev, tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm daim ntawv cog lus & USD kev xav.
Fed Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC
- Yav dhau los: $ 6,602B
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Shrinkage txhawb nqa nruj liquidity, expansion yuav teeb liab easing.
New Zealand - Cov xwm txheej ua lag luam
Kev Lag Luam NZ PMI (Aug) – 22:30 UTC
- Yav dhau los: 52.8
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Tshaj 50 = nthuav dav, txhawb nqa rau NZD. Kev poob qis yuav ua rau NZD kev xav.
Electronic Card Retail Sales (Aug) – 22:45 UTC
- Yav dhau los: + 0.2%
- Qhov cuam tshuam: Qhia txog cov neeg siv khoom xav tau lub zog; upside txhawb NZD.
Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Ua Lag Luam
- Zog: IEA & OPEC tuaj yeem tsav cov roj volatility ntxov.
- ECB: Tus nqi txiav txim siab yuav nyob ruaj khov, tab sis Lagarde lub suab yuav teeb tsa EUR kev taw qhia.
- US: CPI yog tus tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm hnub. Bond auctions thiab fiscal deficit txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag yield dynamics.
- NZ: Qhov cuam tshuam thib ob, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom yuav txav NZD hauv kev lag luam Esxias.
Zuag qhia tag nrho cov qhab nias: 9/10
- Yog vim li cas: Teb Chaws Asmeskas CPI, ECB txoj cai txiav txim siab, thiab kev hloov pauv roj lag luam tsim ib qho triple-tsav tsheb hnub rau FX, sib npaug, daim ntawv cog lus, thiab cov khoom muag.
